changes in rainfall extremes in ontario

Trends in Rainfall Extremes

Mining Extremes: Severe Rainfall and Climate Change

Theoretical developments for the analysis and modeling of extreme value data have tended to focus on limiting cases and assumptions of independence. However, massive datasets from models and sensors, space-time dimensionality, complex dependence structures, long-memory, long-range and low frequency processes all motivate the need for sophisticated methods for correlated and finite data that fol...

Bayesian hierarchical modelling of rainfall extremes

Understanding weather and climate extremes is important for assessing, and adapting to, the potential impacts of climate change. The design of hydraulic structures such as dams, drainage and sewers, for instance, relies in part on accurate information regarding patterns of extreme rainfall occurring at various locations and at different durations. Deriving this kind of information is challengin...

Trends in Moderate Rainfall Extremes: A Regional Monotone Regression Approach

Rainfall extremes are thought to have increased over recent years. Typically linear trends have been considered to describe the temporal evolution of high quantiles of the daily rainfall distribution. For long records it is important to allow more flexibility. Quantile regression methods are available to estimate monotone trends for single stations. Having multiple stations in a region, the sig...

Rainfall extremes: Toward reconciliation after the battle of distributions

[1] This study attempts to reconcile the conflicting results reported in the literature concerning the behavior of peak-over-threshold (POT) daily rainfall extremes and their distribution. By using two worldwide data sets, the impact of threshold selection and record length on the upper tail behavior of POT observations is investigated. The rainfall process is studied within the framework of ge...

On spatial extremes: with application to a rainfall problem

We consider daily rainfall observations at 32 stations in the province of North Holland (The Netherlands) during 30 years. Let Q be the total rainfall in this area on one day. An important question is: what is the amount of rainfall Q that is exceeded once in 100 years? This is clearly a problem belonging to extreme value theory. Also it is a genuinely spatial problem. Recently, a theory of ext...